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"I will be sitting in the same position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer declared, noting that if the discussion proceeded smoothly, he might invite the interviewer into Downing Street for another chat next year.

For a PM, there's rarely ever downtime for prime ministers. In the hour before our chat started, Sir Keir had been on the phone with Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his key friend, US President Donald Trump, had recently targeted and seized its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

Once our interview, which was considerably lengthier than usual, had ended, Maduro had been formally accused in New York.

A Reboot for the New Year

As the year commences, the Prime Minister appears to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just some relaxation with the family at Chequers, the prime minister's country retreat.

This appeared to have put him in better spirits than at the sluggish conclusion of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

But are he and his colleagues kidding themselves if they reckon his political fate are poised to turn around?

Leadership Questions

The uncomfortable reality for the PM is that numerous of his party members believe he's underperforming at his job. A faction of them would sooner gamble and remove him sooner rather than later.

But Sir Keir was rejecting the idea during our conversation on Saturday morning.

Repeatedly he stated he'd be "evaluated at the poll", arguing no one would remove his term from him – despite the fact that the optimal path of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK entering No 10 might be for Labour to replace its leader.

"This is the battle of our lifetime and I intend to be at the forefront," he affirmed.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be judged long before then – in a major set of elections in May across the UK. He tried to argue, perhaps too much, that they are concerning who runs local authorities, and who runs the devolved administrations in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not a verdict on Westminster.

Accurate – in part. But even though he may be reluctant to acknowledge it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

This did not stop Sir Keir implying that there were no scenario under which he would step down, should a his colleagues ran against him for the job, if those elections be very poor for Labour.

Promises of Improvement

He attempted to account for his unpopularity by saying the voters was naturally impatient for things to change. He aimed to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be a change.

The economy would recover notwithstanding rising unemployment, he argued, when plans the government enacted during their initial turbulent year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to close asylum hotels ahead of the current deadline of 2029, although he wouldn't put a specific date on that.
• He said too, with the qualification that it was not a done deal, that a settlement in Ukraine felt more likely now than at any point since Russia's major invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western allies were now talking about how to integrate US and European forces to provide security for Ukraine – to guard a potential peace.

His central message is that this year the country will "reach a turning point".

A Consistent Script

The PM may have communicated with more energy than I've seen from him for a some time – calmer, maybe, with a longer slot to talk.

However, in spite of encountering demands from various quarters for a bolder approach, with greater political clarity, more vigour, more speed and more urgency, his arguments were well-known ones.

When he finds himself in considerable political trouble, is a different approach required a new narrative?

No government, and especially not one that has been struggling in the polls for many months, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's problems are not just because governing is challenging, but because he and his team have erred, including in the last few weeks.

Controversies and Dangers

The PM told me that he was sorry for saying he was "pleased" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an controversy when statements he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – surfaced.

Starmer blamed "procedures" for not realising what the activist had said before – a more diplomatic way of saying not my fault.

And he is courting evident political perils as the year unfolds. His close relationship with the US president takes on a new risk after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Having interviewed Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over a long period, the thought he would be content with such action seems far-fetched.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He told me he was a "career-long proponent of international law" but the public "just lack the full picture at the moment".

Some wanted him to condemn it before we spoke. And the government is likely to face further scrutiny to give an clear view in Parliament in the coming days.

There has also consistently been bubbling pressure in the Labour ranks to undo or remake some of the results of Brexit.

Sir Keir denies he's pursuing that, but his new more concrete commitment to move closer with the single market – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably provoke accusations that he is breaking his vow never to try to undo the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A decision to align with more of the single market will satisfy many on his own side, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to